An Examination of Multiple Bubbles: A Case Study of Iranian Housing Market
سعید
راسخی
author
میلاد
شهرازی
author
text
article
2014
per
Â Since the housing sector has a wide relationship with other economic sectors, fluctuations due to price bubbles of this asset can lead to heavy costs. So, detection of the housing price bubbles must be examined to provide a primary alarming system for the prevention of economic adverse consequences. For this purpose, we have examined whether or not the Iranian housing price has been bubbled during the time period 2002:03-2014:09. To answer the question, we have employed the right-tailed unit root tests suggested by Phillips, et al. (2012). The results based on this new method show that Iranian housing market has experienced the explosive behavior and multiple bubbles during the time period.
Journal of Economic Modeling
دانشگاه سمنان
2345-654X
1
v.
2
no.
2014
1
14
http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1501_9fc6ad449027dcadf695aa9c3440888b.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1501
Household Participation in Pollution: Case study CO2
زهرا
نصراللهی
author
سمیه
نوری زاده
author
شهرام
وصفی اسفستانی
author
text
article
2014
per
Â The experiences of developed countries showed that economic development with emphasis on irregular use of environment would make serious problems on sustainable development. Increasing energy consumption is one of the main factors contributing in emissions of greenhouse gas. One of the main sectors of energy demand and thus contributing to greenhouse gas emissions is household sector, so this paper examines the share of households in Yazd province to CO2 emissions. Â Using the extended input-output data tables with 20 parts, the analysis results are discussed. The results show that the Carbon dioxide emissions from household natural gas consumption with a share of 70 percent is in the first and kerosene with 20% share is in the second place. It has been observed that the amount of direct propagation coefficient in carbon emissions is equal to 0/121826664 Million Rails which mean that for every million rails demand in the household sector 0/121826664 Carbon dioxide gas is released.
Journal of Economic Modeling
دانشگاه سمنان
2345-654X
1
v.
2
no.
2014
15
34
http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1502_f4dda2c39a829395b214628639a90f4a.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1502
Estimation of Confidence Intervals for the Threshold Level of Income Inequality in Iran
خسرو
پیرایی
author
محمد
علیزاده
author
هادی
رضایی
author
مریم
برزگر مروستی
author
text
article
2014
per
Â The overall aim of this study is to construct confidence interval for the optimal size of income inequality, i.e., that size of income inequality which is embodying optimal economic growth in Iran concerning 1353-1391. This size is called to the threshold limit. i.e., the size of income inequality more this limit, has a negative effect on economic growth. Using Hansen two - regime threshold regression model, a relationship was obtained between the effects of income inequality threshold level and economic growth. Then, bootstrap test was done to test linear hypothesis at problems of existence of threshold method. Finally, likelihood ratio was used to obtain the confidence interval for threshold. The results show that income inequality in Iran follow up threshold two regime methods that was 0.417. Also, likelihood ratio test result indicates that the threshold level of income inequality is within the confidence interval .
Journal of Economic Modeling
دانشگاه سمنان
2345-654X
1
v.
2
no.
2014
35
52
http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1503_3510ca888940c9d09a1545361909e287.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1503
Simulating Environmental Kuznets Curve in Iran using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Algorithm
حسین
صادقی
author
امید
ستاری
author
text
article
2014
per
According to the Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, the relationship between per-capita GDP and per-capita Pollutants has an inverted U-shape. Most studies on this subject are based on estimating fully parametric quadratic or cubic regression models. The purpose of this paper is to simulate the relationship between per-capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and per capita income in Iran using genetic algorithm and Particle swarm optimization algorithm concerning three functional forms (linear, quadratic and exponential). Investigating the forecasting accuracy criteria the most subtle model is used to forecast per-capita Co2 emission up to 2025 concerning five scenarios. More minuteness of GA, choosing exponential form as the most subtle functional form, positive effect of Fossil fuel energy consumption and negative effect of economic growth on Co2 emission are the main results.
Journal of Economic Modeling
دانشگاه سمنان
2345-654X
1
v.
2
no.
2014
53
80
http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1504_d77e612e8ef437e9320000551871667b.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1504
The Structural Factors Affecting Income Distribution emphasizing on Corruption
ابراهیم
رضایی
author
آیسا
علیزاده حصار
author
زهرا
صالحیان صالحی نژاد
author
text
article
2014
per
Â Using panel data structure and GMM estimation method, this study, investigates the possible effects of Corruption on income distribution of selected MENA countries concerning the period 1996-2010. The Corruption Perceptions Index and Gini Coefficient are employed to indicate the level of corruption and income inequality, respectively. In addition, some other variables are used as potential control measures affecting income distribution. Â The results show that corruption along with population growth rate and enrollment level increases the income inequality, significantly. The openness of economy has no significant effect on income distribution. So, the conclusion indicates that the corruption and population growth have the greatest effect on income distribution. This implies the importance of these variables (e.g. demographic transition and corruption controls) concerning policyÂ debates.
Journal of Economic Modeling
دانشگاه سمنان
2345-654X
1
v.
2
no.
2014
81
98
http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1505_066ff616e03a592ad754a88f42ab94ad.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1505
The Effect of Gas Price Increase on Household Consumption in Semnan after the First Stage Implementation of Targeted Subsidies
آزاده
محرابیان
author
ساجد
کاشفی
author
text
article
2014
per
Â Government subsidies are one of the most important challenges in Iranâs economy, especially concerning the field of energy. The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of natural gas price shocks on consumption of Semnan household Gas subscribers. Thus , the function o f household consumption of natural gas customers in Semnan city was estimated by Generalized Moments Method (GMM), during April 1385 and March 1391. Variables consisted are natural gas prices, lag of per capita consumption, temperature, lag of per capita income, the price of electricity. According to the estimated price and income elasticity, consumers have significant sensitivity to changes in natural Gas prices however structural break has not been observed in the pattern of natural Gas consumption.
Journal of Economic Modeling
دانشگاه سمنان
2345-654X
1
v.
2
no.
2014
99
122
http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1506_6ded3006806752e2dfd886a40d86e40c.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1506
Oil and Non-oil Export, Non-export Sector and Economic Growth: New Approach to Feder Economic Growth Model
همایون
رنجبر
author
سعید
دایی کریم زاده
author
صابر
معتقد
author
text
article
2014
per
Â The income produced from oil export has a considerable role in the economic sectors of Iran such as non-oil export, non-export sector and economic growth. This article used an extended version of Feder model (1982) to estimate the effects of oil and non-oil export in non-export sector and economic growth process in Iran since 1978-2011. The results suggest that oil export and non-oil export have a positive significant effect on the economic growth. Further, it shows that oil export has a positive significant externality effect on non-oil exports and non-export sectors. Also, non-oil export has a positive significant externality effect on non-exports sector.
Journal of Economic Modeling
دانشگاه سمنان
2345-654X
1
v.
2
no.
2014
123
141
http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1507_36700f1479d8b030edf96a6fc7f08cf1.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1507